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Palmeiras vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 21:30

Palmeiras

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Santos

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-14.7%0-22.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.3%1-19.7%1-24.6%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.2%3-16.8%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-15.6%4+-22.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.4% 66.2% 1.51 -7.3%

Draw 23.5% 26.0% 3.85 -9.5%

Away win 15.1% 15.2% 6.60 -0.3%

Over 2.5 57.5% 52.4% 1.91 +9.8%

Over 3.5 35.1% 30.8% 3.25 +14.1%

BTTS 54.7% 51.3% 1.95 +6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -6.3%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 61% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.7%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 3–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palmeiras2.0

Santos0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.5% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PALMEIRAS · PPG 3.00

SANTOS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=61.4%

Win probability 1X2

Palmeiras (H) 61.4%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -7.3%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.5%

Santos (A) 15.1%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV -0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Palmeiras face Santos in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palmeiras a 61% chance, the draw 24% and Santos 15%, so Palmeiras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Palmeiras and 0.9 for Santos (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palmeiras are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Santos. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Palmeiras vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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