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Loudoun Utd vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 21:00

Loudoun Utd

PPG 0.75 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Oakland Roots

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-17.3%0-26.6%0-33.9%0-4+2.6%1 1-05.7%1-110.3%1-29.2%1-35.5%1-4+3.7%2 2-04.0%2-17.2%2-26.5%2-33.9%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.9%3-13.4%3-23.0%3-31.8%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% 47.6% 2.10 -39.5%

Draw 26.1% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 45.2% 34.5% 2.90 +31.1%

Over 2.5 62.0% 58.8% 1.70 +5.4%

Over 3.5 39.7% 36.4% 2.75 +9.2%

BTTS 64.5% 63.7% 1.57 +1.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 0.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.5%

A 45% / xG 1.4-1.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 2–1 7.2%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 2–2✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Loudoun Utd1.4

Oakland Roots1.8

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LOUDOUN UTD · PPG 0.75

OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.67

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Loudoun Utd (H) 28.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -39.5%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Oakland Roots (A) 45.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +31.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Loudoun Utd face Oakland Roots in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Loudoun Utd a 29% chance, the draw 26% and Oakland Roots 45%, so Oakland Roots are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Loudoun Utd and 1.8 for Oakland Roots (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Loudoun Utd are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.67 for Oakland Roots. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +31.1%. This match finished 2-2.

Loudoun Utd vs Oakland Roots Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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