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Real Salt Lake vs Portland Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 20:45

Real Salt Lake

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Portland

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-13.3%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-05.8%1-17.7%1-25.2%1-32.3%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.9%2-19.2%2-26.1%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.5%3-17.3%3-24.9%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-17.6%4+-25.1%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 66.7% 1.50 -10.9%

Draw 21.3% 21.5% 4.65 -0.9%

Away win 19.3% 18.9% 5.30 +2.3%

Over 2.5 71.7% 71.4% 1.40 +0.4%

Over 3.5 50.9% 50.0% 2.00 +1.8%

BTTS 68.1% 67.6% 1.48 +0.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob68.1%

H 59% / xG 2.4-1.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.2%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 2–0✓ 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Salt Lake2.4

Portland1.3

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL SALT LAKE · PPG 2.40

PORTLAND · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs P(Home)=59.4%

Win probability 1X2

Real Salt Lake (H) 59.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -10.9%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -0.9%

Portland (A) 19.3%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Salt Lake face Portland in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Salt Lake a 59% chance, the draw 21% and Portland 19%, so Real Salt Lake are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Real Salt Lake and 1.3 for Portland (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Salt Lake are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 0.60 for Portland. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Real Salt Lake vs Portland Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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