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ADT vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura - 13 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 20:15

ADT

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Atletico Grau

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.9%0-23.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.3%1-112.5%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-18.9%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.8%3-14.2%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 57.1% 1.75 -16.5%

Draw 30.9% 28.6% 3.50 +8.2%

Away win 21.4% 21.3% 4.70 +0.6%

Over 2.5 40.0% 47.6% 2.10 -16.0%

Over 3.5 19.8% 26.0% 3.85 -23.8%

BTTS 46.0% 51.8% 1.93 -11.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob46.0%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0✓ 14.3%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADT1.4

Atletico Grau0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ADT · PPG 1.33

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs P(Home)=47.7%

Win probability 1X2

ADT (H) 47.7%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -16.5%

Draw 30.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +8.2%

Atletico Grau (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADT face Atletico Grau in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADT a 48% chance, the draw 31% and Atletico Grau 21%, so ADT are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for ADT and 0.9 for Atletico Grau (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADT are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.33 for Atletico Grau. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 1-0.

ADT vs Atletico Grau Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions