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UC Dublin vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:45

UC Dublin

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Finn Harps

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-111.2%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.4%1-112.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.4%2-17.1%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.9%3-12.7%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 48.1% 2.08 -3.9%

Draw 31.6% 29.9% 3.35 +5.9%

Away win 22.2% 29.0% 3.45 -23.4%

Over 2.5 27.3% 54.1% 1.85 -49.5%

Over 3.5 11.1% 32.3% 3.10 -65.6%

BTTS 33.5% 59.9% 1.67 -44.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob33.5%

H 46% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 27% / NoBTTS 34%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.4%

#2 0–0 16.3%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UC Dublin1.1

Finn Harps0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.3% · O3.5 PROB 11.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UC DUBLIN · PPG 2.00

FINN HARPS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=46.2%

Win probability 1X2

UC Dublin (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -3.9%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +5.9%

Finn Harps (A) 22.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

UC Dublin face Finn Harps in Ireland - First Division on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UC Dublin a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Finn Harps 22%, so UC Dublin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for UC Dublin and 0.7 for Finn Harps (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UC Dublin are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Finn Harps. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.9%. This match finished 2-1.

UC Dublin vs Finn Harps Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions