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Botafogo vs Remo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 19:00

Botafogo

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Remo

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+24.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.8%0-22.5%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.7%1-18.5%1-25.5%1-32.3%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.5%3-17.1%3-24.5%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-16.6%4+-24.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 65.8% 1.52 -12.4%

Draw 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -10.0%

Away win 19.9% 16.1% 6.20 +23.4%

Over 2.5 68.1% 54.6% 1.83 +24.6%

Over 3.5 46.6% 32.3% 3.10 +44.5%

BTTS 65.7% 52.6% 1.90 +24.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 132 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob65.7%

H 58% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo2.2

Remo1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.60

REMO · PPG 0.29

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

59%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -12.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.0%

Remo (A) 19.9%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo face Remo in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Remo 20%, so Botafogo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Botafogo and 1.3 for Remo (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.29 for Remo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +44.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Botafogo vs Remo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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