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Eibar vs Malaga Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 19:00

Eibar

PPG 2.26 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Malaga

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.0%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.8%1-112.6%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.3%2-18.9%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 50.0% 2.00 -14.2%

Draw 30.4% 30.8% 3.25 -1.2%

Away win 26.7% 26.0% 3.85 +2.8%

Over 2.5 45.2% 50.0% 2.00 -9.6%

Over 3.5 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -14.0%

BTTS 51.6% 56.5% 1.77 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 43% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eibar1.4

Malaga1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.2% · O3.5 PROB 23.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EIBAR · PPG 2.26

MALAGA · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.26) vs P(Home)=42.9%

Win probability 1X2

Eibar (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -14.2%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -1.2%

Malaga (A) 26.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eibar face Malaga in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eibar a 43% chance, the draw 30% and Malaga 27%, so Eibar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Eibar and 1.1 for Malaga (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eibar are averaging 2.26 points per game versus 1.17 for Malaga. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +2.8%. This match finished 2-4.

Eibar vs Malaga Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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