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Kerry vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:45

Kerry

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Treaty Utd

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.4%0-26.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.8%1-112.3%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.8%2-18.0%2-25.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.5%3-13.5%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 40.3% 2.48 -12.5%

Draw 25.8% 32.3% 3.10 -20.0%

Away win 38.9% 34.5% 2.90 +12.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.4% 26.0% 3.85 +9.3%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 0–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 8.8%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerry1.3

Treaty Utd1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KERRY · PPG 1.00

TREATY UTD · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Kerry (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -12.5%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.0%

Treaty Utd (A) 38.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerry face Treaty Utd in Ireland - First Division on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerry a 35% chance, the draw 26% and Treaty Utd 39%, so Treaty Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kerry and 1.4 for Treaty Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerry are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Treaty Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Kerry vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions