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Kerry vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Matchday 11 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:45

Kerry

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Treaty Utd

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.4%0-26.5%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.8%1-112.3%1-28.5%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.8%2-18.0%2-25.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.5%3-13.5%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 40.3% 2.48 -12.5%

Draw 25.8% 32.3% 3.10 -20.0%

Away win 38.9% 34.5% 2.90 +12.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.4% 26.0% 3.85 +9.3%

BTTS 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 42%

ROI 10.6%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.7%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.3%

#2 0–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 8.8%

#4 1–2 8.5%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerry1.3

Treaty Utd1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KERRY · PPG 1.00

TREATY UTD · PPG 0.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Kerry (H) 35.3%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -12.5%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.0%

Treaty Utd (A) 38.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerry face Treaty Utd in Ireland - First Division on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerry a 35% chance, the draw 26% and Treaty Utd 39%, so Treaty Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kerry and 1.4 for Treaty Utd (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerry are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.20 for Treaty Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Kerry vs Treaty Utd Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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