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Atalanta vs Genoa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Regular Season - 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:45

Atalanta

PPG 1.88 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Genoa

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-18.1%0-23.9%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.7%1-112.3%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.3%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.8%3-14.7%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 65.8% 1.52 -27.0%

Draw 29.6% 25.3% 3.95 +16.9%

Away win 22.4% 16.0% 6.25 +40.0%

Over 2.5 45.0% 55.6% 1.80 -19.0%

Over 3.5 23.7% 33.3% 3.00 -28.9%

BTTS 50.1% 54.1% 1.85 -7.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -32.5%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.1%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–0✓ 8.4%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atalanta1.5

Genoa1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATALANTA · PPG 1.88

GENOA · PPG 1.06

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=48.0%

Win probability 1X2

Atalanta (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -27.0%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +16.9%

Genoa (A) 22.4%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +40.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atalanta face Genoa in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atalanta a 48% chance, the draw 30% and Genoa 22%, so Atalanta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Atalanta and 1.0 for Genoa (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atalanta are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.06 for Genoa. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Atalanta vs Genoa Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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