Atalanta vs Genoa Prediction & Tips

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Italy - Serie A Regular Season - 35 New Balance Arena· Bergamo Saturday, May 2, 2026 18:45

Atalanta PPG 1.88

0-0 HIT CS3

Genoa PPG 1.06

Away· +40.0% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 48.0%

Odds: 1.52 EV: -27.0%

Draw 29.6%

Odds: 3.95 EV: +16.9%

Away 22.4%

Odds: 6.25 EV: +40.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 45.0% Odds: 1.80 -19.0%

Over 3.5 23.7% Odds: 3.00 -28.9%

BTTS 50.1% Odds: 1.85 -7.3%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✔

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Atalanta

1.51

Genoa

0.97

Model SuggestionBTTS -7.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -7.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+40.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=48.0%