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Sporting KC vs Seattle Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:30

Sporting KC

PPG 0.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Seattle

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+14.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-113.4%0-213.4%0-38.9%0-4+7.1%1 1-04.7%1-19.4%1-29.4%1-36.3%1-4+5.0%2 2-01.7%2-13.3%2-23.3%2-32.2%2-4+1.8%3 3-00.4%3-10.8%3-20.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 10.7% 23.8% 4.20 -55.1%

Draw 22.8% 25.3% 3.95 -9.9%

Away win 66.4% 57.8% 1.73 +14.9%

Over 2.5 50.8% 61.7% 1.62 -17.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 39.2% 2.55 -26.8%

BTTS 45.1% 62.5% 1.60 -27.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob45.1%

A 66% / xG 0.7-2.0 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 13.4%

#2 0–1 13.4%

#3 1–1✓ 9.4%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–3 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting KC0.7

Seattle2.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING KC · PPG 0.25

SEATTLE · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Sporting KC (H) 10.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -55.1%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -9.9%

Seattle (A) 66.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting KC face Seattle in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting KC a 11% chance, the draw 23% and Seattle 66%, so Seattle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Sporting KC and 2.0 for Seattle (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting KC are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 2.00 for Seattle. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Sporting KC vs Seattle Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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