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Cork City vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:45

Cork City

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Wexford

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.1% vs bookmaker-implied 75.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-15.9%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.0%1-110.8%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-16.0%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.1% 75.8% 1.32 -24.6%

Draw 22.8% 21.7% 4.60 +4.9%

Away win 20.0% 9.5% 10.50 +110.0%

Over 2.5 53.2% 57.1% 1.75 -6.9%

Over 3.5 30.9% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

BTTS 52.4% 48.8% 2.05 +7.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.4%

H 57% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 10.8%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1✓ 9.9%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cork City1.8

Wexford1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CORK CITY · PPG 3.00

WEXFORD · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=57.1%

Win probability 1X2

Cork City (H) 57.1%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV -24.6%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +4.9%

Wexford (A) 20.0%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV +110.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cork City face Wexford in Ireland - First Division on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cork City a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Wexford 20%, so Cork City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cork City and 1.0 for Wexford (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cork City are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Wexford. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +110.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Cork City vs Wexford Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions