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D. de Belgrano vs Central Norte Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:30

D. de Belgrano

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Central Norte

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.5%0-113.7%0-23.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.1%1-111.4%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.8%2-14.7%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.4%3-11.3%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 54.6% 1.83 -30.5%

Draw 41.6% 35.1% 2.85 +18.6%

Away win 20.4% 20.0% 5.00 +2.0%

Over 2.5 15.8% 32.3% 3.10 -51.0%

Over 3.5 5.0% — — —

BTTS 25.1% 39.2% 2.55 -36.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob25.1%

H 38% / xG 0.8-0.5 / U2.5 16% / NoBTTS 25%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.5%

#2 1–0 21.1%

#3 1–1✓ 11.4%

#4 0–1 13.7%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. de Belgrano0.8

Central Norte0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 15.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.0%

Form & verdict PPG

D. DE BELGRANO · PPG 1.00

CENTRAL NORTE · PPG 0.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

D. de Belgrano (H) 38.0%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -30.5%

Draw 41.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +18.6%

Central Norte (A) 20.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. de Belgrano face Central Norte in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. de Belgrano a 38% chance, the draw 42% and Central Norte 20%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for D. de Belgrano and 0.5 for Central Norte (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 16% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 25% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. de Belgrano are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Central Norte. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 1-1.

D. de Belgrano vs Central Norte Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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