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CA Estudiantes vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:30

CA Estudiantes

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

San Telmo

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-114.9%0-26.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.6%1-113.3%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.9%2-15.9%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.1%3-11.7%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 57.8% 1.73 -44.1%

Draw 37.6% 33.9% 2.95 +10.9%

Away win 30.2% 17.9% 5.60 +69.1%

Over 2.5 25.3% 37.0% 2.70 -31.7%

Over 3.5 9.9% — — —

BTTS 35.7% 42.0% 2.38 -15.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob35.7%

D 38% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 25% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 1–1✓ 13.3%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 0–1 14.9%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CA Estudiantes0.9

San Telmo0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.3% · O3.5 PROB 9.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CA ESTUDIANTES · PPG 1.00

SAN TELMO · PPG 0.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

CA Estudiantes (H) 32.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -44.1%

Draw 37.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +10.9%

San Telmo (A) 30.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +69.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

CA Estudiantes face San Telmo in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CA Estudiantes a 32% chance, the draw 38% and San Telmo 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for CA Estudiantes and 0.8 for San Telmo (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 25% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CA Estudiantes are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for San Telmo. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +69.1%. This match finished 1-1.

CA Estudiantes vs San Telmo Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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