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NK Celje vs Bravo Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:15

NK Celje

PPG 2.60 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bravo

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.8%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.5%1-18.6%1-24.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.4%3-17.3%3-24.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-17.0%4+-24.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.3% 63.7% 1.57 -3.8%

Draw 21.9% 24.4% 4.10 -10.2%

Away win 16.8% 20.8% 4.80 -19.4%

Over 2.5 66.1% 66.7% 1.50 -0.9%

Over 3.5 44.2% 45.5% 2.20 -2.8%

BTTS 62.3% 66.7% 1.50 -6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.3%

H 61% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Celje2.3

Bravo1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.1% · O3.5 PROB 44.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NK CELJE · PPG 2.60

BRAVO · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=61.3%

Win probability 1X2

NK Celje (H) 61.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -3.8%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.2%

Bravo (A) 16.8%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Celje face Bravo in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Celje a 61% chance, the draw 22% and Bravo 17%, so NK Celje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for NK Celje and 1.1 for Bravo (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Celje are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.69 for Bravo. This match finished 2-3.

NK Celje vs Bravo Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions