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Al Hazm vs Al Hilal Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:00

Al Hazm

PPG 1.53 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Hilal

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.9% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-18.0%0-29.1%0-36.9%0-4+6.7%1 1-03.8%1-18.6%1-29.8%1-37.4%1-4+7.2%2 2-02.0%2-14.6%2-25.2%2-34.0%2-4+3.8%3 3-00.7%3-11.6%3-21.9%3-31.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.3% 7.1% 14.00 +114.2%

Draw 21.6% 15.4% 6.50 +40.4%

Away win 63.1% 84.7% 1.18 -25.5%

Over 2.5 64.9% 74.1% 1.35 -12.4%

Over 3.5 42.9% 54.1% 1.85 -20.6%

BTTS 60.2% 56.5% 1.77 +6.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob60.2%

A 63% / xG 1.1-2.3 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.1%

#4 1–3 7.4%

#5 0–3✓ 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Hazm1.1

Al Hilal2.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.9% · O3.5 PROB 42.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL HAZM · PPG 1.53

AL HILAL · PPG 2.38

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.38) vs Home GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Al Hazm (H) 15.3%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +114.2%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +40.4%

Al Hilal (A) 63.1%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Hazm face Al Hilal in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Hazm a 15% chance, the draw 22% and Al Hilal 63%, so Al Hilal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Al Hazm and 2.3 for Al Hilal (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Hazm are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 2.38 for Al Hilal. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +114.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Al Hazm vs Al Hilal Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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