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FC Cajamarca vs Sport Boys Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 13 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:00

FC Cajamarca

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sport Boys

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 55.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-18.6%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.2%1-112.3%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-18.9%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.6% 45.5% 2.20 -10.7%

Draw 29.6% 30.8% 3.25 -3.8%

Away win 29.8% 30.8% 3.25 -3.1%

Over 2.5 49.2% 47.6% 2.10 +3.3%

Over 3.5 27.3% 26.3% 3.80 +3.7%

BTTS 55.3% 55.6% 1.80 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.3%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.1%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cajamarca1.4

Sport Boys1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.2% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.00

SPORT BOYS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

FC Cajamarca (H) 40.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -10.7%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.8%

Sport Boys (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cajamarca face Sport Boys in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cajamarca a 41% chance, the draw 30% and Sport Boys 30%, so FC Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FC Cajamarca and 1.2 for Sport Boys (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cajamarca are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Sport Boys. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.7%. This match finished 3-2.

FC Cajamarca vs Sport Boys Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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