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USL Dunkerque vs Grenoble Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:00

USL Dunkerque

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Grenoble

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.0%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.7%1-112.2%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.3%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.5%3-14.7%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 50.0% 2.00 -7.0%

Draw 29.3% 30.3% 3.30 -3.3%

Away win 24.1% 27.0% 3.70 -10.8%

Over 2.5 47.3% 52.6% 1.90 -10.1%

Over 3.5 25.7% 31.3% 3.20 -17.8%

BTTS 52.5% 59.9% 1.67 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.5%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

USL Dunkerque1.5

Grenoble1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.3% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

USL DUNKERQUE · PPG 1.38

GRENOBLE · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

USL Dunkerque (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -7.0%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.3%

Grenoble (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

USL Dunkerque face Grenoble in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives USL Dunkerque a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Grenoble 24%, so USL Dunkerque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for USL Dunkerque and 1.0 for Grenoble (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, USL Dunkerque are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.69 for Grenoble. This match finished 0-1.

USL Dunkerque vs Grenoble Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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