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Troyes vs Laval Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:00

Troyes

PPG 2.50 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Laval

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-16.6%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.0%1-111.3%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.1%2-19.6%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.3%3-15.5%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-13.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.7% 63.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Draw 27.1% 25.0% 4.00 +8.4%

Away win 17.1% 18.2% 5.50 -5.9%

Over 2.5 47.7% 58.8% 1.70 -18.9%

Over 3.5 26.0% 35.7% 2.80 -27.2%

BTTS 49.3% 57.8% 1.73 -14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.3%

H 56% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Troyes1.7

Laval0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TROYES · PPG 2.50

LAVAL · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=55.7%

Win probability 1X2

Troyes (H) 55.7%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -12.6%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.4%

Laval (A) 17.1%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Troyes face Laval in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Troyes a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Laval 17%, so Troyes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Troyes and 0.9 for Laval (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Troyes are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.13 for Laval. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.4%. This match finished 4-0.

Troyes vs Laval Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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