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Rodez Aveyron vs Saint-Etienne Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:00

Rodez Aveyron

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Saint-Etienne

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-110.3%0-26.4%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.5%1-112.9%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.5%2-18.0%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.7%3-13.3%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 31.3% 3.20 +11.7%

Draw 31.0% 27.8% 3.60 +11.6%

Away win 34.1% 47.6% 2.10 -28.4%

Over 2.5 45.1% 60.6% 1.65 -25.6%

Over 3.5 23.8% 39.2% 2.55 -39.3%

BTTS 52.4% 66.7% 1.50 -21.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.4%

D 31% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.4%

#3 1–0 10.5%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–1✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rodez Aveyron1.2

Saint-Etienne1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RODEZ AVEYRON · PPG 1.75

SAINT-ETIENNE · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Rodez Aveyron (H) 34.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +11.7%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +11.6%

Saint-Etienne (A) 34.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -28.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rodez Aveyron face Saint-Etienne in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rodez Aveyron a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Saint-Etienne 34%, so Rodez Aveyron are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Rodez Aveyron and 1.2 for Saint-Etienne (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rodez Aveyron are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.56 for Saint-Etienne. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +11.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Rodez Aveyron vs Saint-Etienne Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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