Today / France - Ligue 2 / Pau FC vs Nancy

Pau FC vs Nancy Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:00

Pau FC

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Nancy

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.1%0-24.8%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.2%1-112.1%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.6%2-19.1%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.8%3-14.5%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.4%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 40.0% 2.50 +6.5%

Draw 29.2% 29.4% 3.40 -0.7%

Away win 28.3% 37.7% 2.65 -25.0%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.8% 1.93 -2.7%

Over 3.5 28.3% 29.9% 3.35 -5.2%

BTTS 55.8% 58.8% 1.70 -5.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.8%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 2–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pau FC1.5

Nancy1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

PAU FC · PPG 1.25

NANCY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Pau FC (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +6.5%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -0.7%

Nancy (A) 28.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pau FC face Nancy in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pau FC a 43% chance, the draw 29% and Nancy 28%, so Pau FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Pau FC and 1.2 for Nancy (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pau FC are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Nancy. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Pau FC vs Nancy Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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