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Nantes vs Nancy Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 5 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 18:45

Nantes

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLD ·

UPCOMING

Nancy

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-111.2%0-27.4%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-09.8%1-112.9%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.6%2-17.4%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.1%3-12.8%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 54.1% 1.85 -42.8%

Draw 26.0% 30.3% 3.30 -8.5%

Away win 43.0% 26.3% 3.80 +63.4%

Over 2.5 53.0% 52.6% 1.90 +0.7%

Over 3.5 31.6% 30.8% 3.25 +2.7%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 31.2% 54.6% 1.83 -42.9%

Away O1.5 41.6% 30.8% 3.25 +35.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 18.1%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–1 11.2%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nantes1.1

Nancy1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NANTES · PPG 1.07

NANCY · PPG 1.47

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

57%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.17, combined xG 2.46 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nantes (H) 30.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -42.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.5%

Nancy (A) 43.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +63.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nantes face Nancy in France - Ligue 2 on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nantes a 31% chance, the draw 26% and Nancy 43%, so Nancy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Nantes and 1.3 for Nancy (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nantes are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.47 for Nancy. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +35.2%.

Nantes vs Nancy Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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