Today / France - Ligue 2 / Montpellier vs Clermont

Montpellier vs Clermont Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:00

Montpellier

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Clermont

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-18.6%0-24.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.3%1-112.5%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.0%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.6%3-14.4%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 58.8% 1.70 -20.1%

Draw 30.4% 27.0% 3.70 +12.5%

Away win 22.6% 21.1% 4.75 +7.3%

Over 2.5 42.7% 51.3% 1.95 -16.7%

Over 3.5 21.8% 29.0% 3.45 -24.8%

BTTS 48.5% 54.6% 1.83 -11.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.5%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 0–0 9.2%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montpellier1.4

Clermont0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTPELLIER · PPG 1.75

CLERMONT · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=47.0%

Win probability 1X2

Montpellier (H) 47.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -20.1%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +12.5%

Clermont (A) 22.6%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Montpellier face Clermont in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montpellier a 47% chance, the draw 30% and Clermont 23%, so Montpellier are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Montpellier and 0.9 for Clermont (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montpellier are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.81 for Clermont. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Montpellier vs Clermont Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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