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Le Mans vs Reims Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:00

Le Mans

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Reims

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-110.5%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.6%1-113.2%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.9%2-18.2%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.3%3-13.4%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 40.0% 2.50 -2.3%

Draw 32.2% 30.3% 3.30 +6.3%

Away win 28.7% 36.4% 2.75 -21.1%

Over 2.5 40.2% 51.8% 1.93 -22.4%

Over 3.5 19.9% 29.9% 3.35 -33.3%

BTTS 48.1% 58.8% 1.70 -18.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

H 39% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Le Mans1.3

Reims1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.9%

Form & verdict PPG

LE MANS · PPG 2.00

REIMS · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Le Mans (H) 39.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -2.3%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +6.3%

Reims (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Le Mans face Reims in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Le Mans a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Reims 29%, so Le Mans are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Le Mans and 1.0 for Reims (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Le Mans are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.44 for Reims. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Le Mans vs Reims Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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