Today / France - Ligue 2 / Guingamp vs SC Bastia

Guingamp vs SC Bastia Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 18:00

Guingamp

PPG 1.44 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

SC Bastia

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-110.1%0-24.9%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.4%1-113.0%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-18.5%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.8%3-13.7%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 43.5% 2.30 -3.4%

Draw 32.0% 29.0% 3.45 +10.4%

Away win 26.0% 34.7% 2.88 -25.1%

Over 2.5 39.5% 51.3% 1.95 -23.0%

Over 3.5 19.4% 29.0% 3.45 -33.1%

BTTS 47.1% 57.8% 1.73 -18.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 24.9%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.1%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 10.4%

#3 1–0 13.4%

#4 2–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guingamp1.3

SC Bastia1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.5% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GUINGAMP · PPG 1.44

SC BASTIA · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Guingamp (H) 42.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -3.4%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +10.4%

SC Bastia (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guingamp face SC Bastia in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guingamp a 42% chance, the draw 32% and SC Bastia 26%, so Guingamp are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Guingamp and 1.0 for SC Bastia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guingamp are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.69 for SC Bastia. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Guingamp vs SC Bastia Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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