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Athlone Town vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:45

Athlone Town

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Bray Wanderers

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 43.9% — a clear edge.

+19.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-113.5%0-210.4%0-35.3%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.8%1-112.1%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.5%2-15.4%2-24.2%2-32.1%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.1%3-11.6%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.9% 33.8% 2.96 -35.2%

Draw 25.7% 29.4% 3.40 -12.6%

Away win 52.4% 43.9% 2.28 +19.5%

Over 2.5 44.0% 54.6% 1.83 -19.5%

Over 3.5 22.9% 32.3% 3.10 -29.0%

BTTS 46.5% 61.7% 1.62 -24.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob46.5%

A 52% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.5%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 0–2 10.4%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athlone Town0.9

Bray Wanderers1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLONE TOWN · PPG 2.00

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=21.9%

Win probability 1X2

Athlone Town (H) 21.9%

ODDS 2.96 · IMPLIED 33.8% EV -35.2%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.6%

Bray Wanderers (A) 52.4%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athlone Town face Bray Wanderers in Ireland - First Division on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athlone Town a 22% chance, the draw 26% and Bray Wanderers 52%, so Bray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Athlone Town and 1.5 for Bray Wanderers (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athlone Town are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Bray Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Athlone Town vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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