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Al Ula vs Al Raed Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:50

Al Ula

PPG 2.13 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Raed

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.4%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.8%1-110.3%1-26.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.3%3-16.2%3-23.6%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.5%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 59.5% 1.68 -11.3%

Draw 25.4% 26.7% 3.75 -4.8%

Away win 21.7% 23.8% 4.20 -8.9%

Over 2.5 59.3% 62.5% 1.60 -5.1%

Over 3.5 36.9% 40.0% 2.50 -7.8%

BTTS 60.2% 64.5% 1.55 -6.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.2%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ula1.9

Al Raed1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ULA · PPG 2.13

AL RAED · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Al Ula (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -11.3%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.8%

Al Raed (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ula face Al Raed in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ula a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Al Raed 22%, so Al Ula are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Al Ula and 1.2 for Al Raed (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ula are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.33 for Al Raed. This match finished 2-1.

Al Ula vs Al Raed Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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