Today / France - National 1 / Bourg-en-Bresse vs Villefranche

Bourg-en-Bresse vs Villefranche Prediction— France - National 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:30

Bourg-en-Bresse

PPG 0.93 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Villefranche

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-111.9%0-26.7%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.9%1-113.3%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.6%2-17.5%2-24.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.5%3-12.8%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.5% 56.5% 1.77 -40.7%

Draw 32.8% 29.9% 3.35 +9.9%

Away win 33.7% 23.8% 4.20 +41.5%

Over 2.5 39.0% 48.8% 2.05 -20.1%

Over 3.5 19.0% 27.4% 3.65 -30.6%

BTTS 47.5% 54.1% 1.85 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 39%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -23.9%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.5%

D 33% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–0✓ 11.9%

#5 1–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bourg-en-Bresse1.1

Villefranche1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOURG-EN-BRESSE · PPG 0.93

VILLEFRANCHE · PPG 0.71

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Bourg-en-Bresse (H) 33.5%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -40.7%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +9.9%

Villefranche (A) 33.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +41.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bourg-en-Bresse face Villefranche in France - National 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bourg-en-Bresse a 34% chance, the draw 33% and Villefranche 34%, so Villefranche are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Bourg-en-Bresse and 1.1 for Villefranche (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bourg-en-Bresse are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 0.71 for Villefranche. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +41.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Bourg-en-Bresse vs Villefranche Prediction— France - National 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More France - National 1 Predictions