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Toronto vs SJ Earthquakes Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:00

Toronto

PPG 1.43 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

SJ Earthquakes

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-17.2%0-28.3%0-36.4%0-4+6.4%1 1-03.6%1-18.3%1-29.6%1-37.4%1-4+7.4%2 2-02.1%2-14.8%2-25.6%2-34.3%2-4+4.3%3 3-00.8%3-11.8%3-22.1%3-31.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.5% 29.9% 3.35 -44.7%

Draw 21.4% 27.4% 3.65 -21.9%

Away win 62.1% 49.5% 2.02 +25.4%

Over 2.5 67.4% 61.7% 1.62 +9.2%

Over 3.5 45.7% 39.2% 2.55 +16.5%

BTTS 63.0% 65.4% 1.53 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -3.8%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.0%

A 62% / xG 1.2-2.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1✓ 8.3%

#3 0–2 8.3%

#4 1–3 7.4%

#5 0–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toronto1.2

SJ Earthquakes2.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TORONTO · PPG 1.43

SJ EARTHQUAKES · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Toronto (H) 16.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -44.7%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -21.9%

SJ Earthquakes (A) 62.1%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto face SJ Earthquakes in USA - Major League Soccer on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto a 17% chance, the draw 21% and SJ Earthquakes 62%, so SJ Earthquakes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Toronto and 2.3 for SJ Earthquakes (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 3.00 for SJ Earthquakes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Toronto vs SJ Earthquakes Prediction— USA - Major League Soccer

Match Preview & Prediction

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