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Shelbourne vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 12 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:45

Shelbourne

PPG 0.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Derry City

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-18.4%0-26.9%0-33.8%0-4+2.2%1 1-06.8%1-111.2%1-29.2%1-35.0%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.5%2-17.4%2-26.1%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.0%3-13.3%3-22.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% 47.6% 2.10 -34.5%

Draw 24.1% 31.3% 3.20 -22.9%

Away win 44.7% 28.2% 3.55 +58.7%

Over 2.5 57.2% 46.5% 2.15 +23.0%

Over 3.5 34.8% 25.0% 4.00 +39.2%

BTTS 59.4% 54.1% 1.85 +9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob59.4%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2✓ 9.2%

#3 0–1 8.4%

#4 2–1 7.4%

#5 0–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shelbourne1.3

Derry City1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHELBOURNE · PPG 0.60

DERRY CITY · PPG 0.60

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.60), Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Shelbourne (H) 31.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -34.5%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -22.9%

Derry City (A) 44.7%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +58.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shelbourne face Derry City in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shelbourne a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Derry City 45%, so Derry City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Shelbourne and 1.6 for Derry City (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shelbourne are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.60 for Derry City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +58.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Shelbourne vs Derry City Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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