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Samgurali vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 17:00

Samgurali

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gagra

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-112.2%0-28.0%0-33.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.8%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.2%2-16.9%2-24.6%2-32.0%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.8%3-12.4%3-21.6%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 38.2% 2.62 -26.6%

Draw 31.3% 31.3% 3.20 +0.2%

Away win 40.6% 42.0% 2.38 -3.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 55.6% 1.80 -23.1%

Over 3.5 21.9% — — —

BTTS 50.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob50.0%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 43% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.2%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samgurali1.1

Gagra1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMGURALI · PPG 1.00

GAGRA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Samgurali (H) 28.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -26.6%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +0.2%

Gagra (A) 40.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samgurali face Gagra in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samgurali a 28% chance, the draw 31% and Gagra 41%, so Gagra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Samgurali and 1.3 for Gagra (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samgurali are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Gagra. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Samgurali vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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