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Croatia - HNL
Regular Season - 33
Stadion Gradski vrt· Osijek
Saturday, May 2, 2026
16:45
Vukovar
PPG 1.13
1-0
HIT CS4
Osijek
PPG 1.00
Home· +8.8%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
37.5%
Odds: 2.90
EV: +8.8%
Draw
30.3%
Odds: 3.10
EV: -6.1%
Away
32.2%
Odds: 2.38
EV: -23.4%
Model lean:
BTTS
Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
47.4%
Odds: 1.95
-7.6%
Over 3.5
25.7%
Odds: 3.40
-12.6%
BTTS
54.1%
Odds: 1.70
-8.0%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔
BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
0-0
✘
3rd
2-1
✘
4th
1-0
✔
5th
1-2
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Vukovar
1.34
Osijek
1.23
Model Suggestion
BTTS
-8.0%
NO VALUE BET
No value bet:
model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV:
Home (+8.8%) — probability too low to qualify.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42%
BALANCED
Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.00)