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Vukovar vs Osijek Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:45

Vukovar

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Osijek

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-19.4%0-25.8%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.3%1-112.6%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.9%2-18.5%2-25.2%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.1%3-13.8%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 34.5% 2.90 +8.8%

Draw 30.3% 32.3% 3.10 -6.1%

Away win 32.2% 42.0% 2.38 -23.4%

Over 2.5 47.4% 51.3% 1.95 -7.6%

Over 3.5 25.7% 29.4% 3.40 -12.6%

BTTS 54.1% 58.8% 1.70 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.1%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–0✓ 10.3%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vukovar1.3

Osijek1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 25.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VUKOVAR · PPG 1.13

OSIJEK · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.13), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Vukovar (H) 37.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +8.8%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.1%

Osijek (A) 32.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vukovar face Osijek in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vukovar a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Osijek 32%, so Vukovar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vukovar and 1.2 for Osijek (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vukovar are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.00 for Osijek. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Vukovar vs Osijek Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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