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Al Orubah vs Al Wahda Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:35

Al Orubah

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Wahda

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.2%0-23.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.0%1-110.9%1-26.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.7%3-15.7%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.7%4+-22.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 24.4% 32.3% 3.10 -24.4%

Over 2.5 57.2% 61.7% 1.62 -7.3%

Over 3.5 34.8% 39.2% 2.55 -11.3%

BTTS 59.8% 66.7% 1.50 -10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.8%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0✓ 8.0%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Orubah1.8

Al Wahda1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 34.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL ORUBAH · PPG 1.40

AL WAHDA · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Al Orubah (H) 48.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +2.7%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Al Wahda (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Orubah face Al Wahda in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Orubah a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Al Wahda 24%, so Al Orubah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Al Orubah and 1.2 for Al Wahda (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Orubah are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.87 for Al Wahda. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Al Orubah vs Al Wahda Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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