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Dundalk vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:45

Dundalk

PPG 2.20 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Galway Utd

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.4%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.5%1-110.1%1-26.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.4%3-15.9%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.2%4+-22.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 51.0% 1.96 -2.4%

Draw 22.6% 29.0% 3.45 -22.0%

Away win 27.6% 27.0% 3.70 +2.1%

Over 2.5 62.2% 52.6% 1.90 +18.2%

Over 3.5 39.9% 30.8% 3.25 +29.7%

BTTS 62.4% 57.8% 1.73 +8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob62.4%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 1–0 7.5%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundalk1.9

Galway Utd1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDALK · PPG 2.20

GALWAY UTD · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=49.8%

Win probability 1X2

Dundalk (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -2.4%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -22.0%

Galway Utd (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundalk face Galway Utd in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundalk a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Galway Utd 28%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Dundalk and 1.3 for Galway Utd (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundalk are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.80 for Galway Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Dundalk vs Galway Utd Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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