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Real Aviles vs Guadalajara Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:30

Real Aviles

PPG 1.18 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Guadalajara

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.18) > Away POOR (0.82)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.8%0-24.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.8%1-111.9%1-27.3%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.1%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.8%3-14.7%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% — — —

Draw 28.8% — — —

Away win 28.4% — — —

Over 2.5 51.7% — — —

Over 3.5 29.6% — — —

BTTS 56.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.9%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.4%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Aviles1.5

Guadalajara1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL AVILES · PPG 1.18

GUADALAJARA · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.18) > Away POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Real Aviles (H) 42.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guadalajara (A) 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Aviles face Guadalajara in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Aviles a 43% chance, the draw 29% and Guadalajara 28%, so Real Aviles are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Real Aviles and 1.2 for Guadalajara (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Aviles are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 0.82 for Guadalajara. This match finished 2-2.

Real Aviles vs Guadalajara Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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