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Inter Milan W vs AC Milan W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:30

Inter Milan W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

AC Milan W

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-15.6%0-23.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.1%1-110.4%1-26.0%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.4%3-16.2%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.5%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 65.4% 1.53 -18.8%

Draw 25.6% 27.0% 3.70 -5.3%

Away win 21.3% 20.0% 5.00 +6.5%

Over 2.5 58.2% — — —

Over 3.5 35.8% — — —

BTTS 59.3% 57.1% 1.75 +3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.3%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–0✓ 9.1%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Milan W1.9

AC Milan W1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.2% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MILAN W · PPG 2.00

AC MILAN W · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Inter Milan W (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -18.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.3%

AC Milan W (A) 21.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Milan W face AC Milan W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Milan W a 53% chance, the draw 26% and AC Milan W 21%, so Inter Milan W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Inter Milan W and 1.1 for AC Milan W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Milan W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.56 for AC Milan W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Inter Milan W vs AC Milan W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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