AS Roma W vs Ternana W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Italy - Serie A Women Regular Season - 20 Stadio Tre Fontane· Rome Saturday, May 2, 2026 16:30

AS Roma W PPG 2.33

2-0 HIT MostLikelyScore

Ternana W PPG 0.44

Draw· +3.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

AS Roma W face Ternana W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AS Roma W a 69% chance, the draw 21% and Ternana W 11%, so AS Roma W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for AS Roma W and 0.8 for Ternana W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AS Roma W are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.44 for Ternana W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 68.5%

Odds: 1.22 EV: -16.4%

Draw 20.6%

Odds: 5.00 EV: +3.0%

Away 10.9%

Odds: 8.50 EV: -7.3%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.5% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 37.2% Odds: — —

BTTS 51.6% Odds: 1.80 -7.1%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✔

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

AS Roma W

2.26

Ternana W

0.83

Model SuggestionHome -16.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -16.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+3.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.44) - Strong consensus