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AS Roma W vs Ternana W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Regular Season - 20 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:30

AS Roma W

PPG 2.33 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ternana W

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 68.5% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-13.8%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.3%1-18.5%1-23.5%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.7%2-19.6%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-17.3%3-23.0%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-17.0%4+-22.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.5% 82.0% 1.22 -16.4%

Draw 20.6% 20.0% 5.00 +3.0%

Away win 10.9% 11.8% 8.50 -7.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 37.2% — — —

BTTS 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 68% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 11.7%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 3–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AS Roma W2.3

Ternana W0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AS ROMA W · PPG 2.33

TERNANA W · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.44) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

AS Roma W (H) 68.5%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -16.4%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.0%

Ternana W (A) 10.9%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

AS Roma W face Ternana W in Italy - Serie A Women on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AS Roma W a 69% chance, the draw 21% and Ternana W 11%, so AS Roma W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for AS Roma W and 0.8 for Ternana W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AS Roma W are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.44 for Ternana W. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +3.0%. This match finished 2-0.

AS Roma W vs Ternana W Prediction— Italy - Serie A Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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