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Castellon vs Cordoba Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Regular Season - 38 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:30

Castellon

PPG 2.17 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cordoba

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.9%0-23.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.7%1-110.6%1-26.5%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.8%3-15.8%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.0%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 64.5% 1.55 -23.1%

Draw 26.2% 23.3% 4.30 +12.7%

Away win 24.2% 19.2% 5.20 +25.8%

Over 2.5 58.5% 67.6% 1.48 -13.4%

Over 3.5 36.1% 46.5% 2.15 -22.4%

BTTS 60.7% 66.7% 1.50 -8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 9.7%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.7%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 1–2✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Castellon1.8

Cordoba1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CASTELLON · PPG 2.17

CORDOBA · PPG 1.37

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away AVERAGE (1.37)

Win probability 1X2

Castellon (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -23.1%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +12.7%

Cordoba (A) 24.2%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +25.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Castellon face Cordoba in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castellon a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Cordoba 24%, so Castellon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Castellon and 1.2 for Cordoba (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castellon are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.37 for Cordoba. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Castellon vs Cordoba Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División Predictions