Castellon vs Cordoba Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Spain - Segunda División Regular Season - 38 Estadio Municipal de Castalia· Castellon Saturday, May 2, 2026 16:30

Castellon PPG 2.17

1-2 HIT CS5

Cordoba PPG 1.37

Away· +25.8% ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Castellon face Cordoba in Spain - Segunda División on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Castellon a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Cordoba 24%, so Castellon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Castellon and 1.2 for Cordoba (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Castellon are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.37 for Cordoba. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 49.6%

Odds: 1.55 EV: -23.1%

Draw 26.2%

Odds: 4.30 EV: +12.7%

Away 24.2%

Odds: 5.20 EV: +25.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 58.5% Odds: 1.48 -13.4%

Over 3.5 36.1% Odds: 2.15 -22.4%

BTTS 60.7% Odds: 1.50 -8.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Castellon

1.81

Cordoba

1.22

Model SuggestionBTTS -8.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -8.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+25.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 64% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.17) > Away AVERAGE (1.37)