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Al Faisaly vs Al Jabalain Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:10

Al Faisaly

PPG 1.73 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Jabalain

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.7%0-24.4%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-08.6%1-111.2%1-27.3%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.3%2-26.0%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.9%3-15.1%3-23.3%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 54.6% 1.83 -19.1%

Draw 27.4% 27.4% 3.65 +0.0%

Away win 28.4% 28.2% 3.55 +0.8%

Over 2.5 56.8% 58.8% 1.70 -3.4%

Over 3.5 34.4% 36.4% 2.75 -5.4%

BTTS 60.6% 62.5% 1.60 -3.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 1.1%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.6%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0✓ 7.1%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Faisaly1.7

Al Jabalain1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.8% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL FAISALY · PPG 1.73

AL JABALAIN · PPG 1.53

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.73), Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Al Faisaly (H) 44.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -19.1%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +0.0%

Al Jabalain (A) 28.4%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Faisaly face Al Jabalain in Saudi-Arabia - Division 1 on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Faisaly a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Al Jabalain 28%, so Al Faisaly are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Faisaly and 1.3 for Al Jabalain (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Faisaly are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.53 for Al Jabalain. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Al Faisaly vs Al Jabalain Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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