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Damak vs Al Khaleej Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Regular Season - 31 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:10

Damak

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Khaleej

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-18.8%0-26.6%0-33.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.9%1-111.8%1-28.8%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.3%2-17.9%2-25.9%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.4%3-13.5%3-22.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% 37.7% 2.65 -14.7%

Draw 28.5% 28.2% 3.55 +1.2%

Away win 39.3% 40.8% 2.45 -3.7%

Over 2.5 54.0% 54.1% 1.85 -0.1%

Over 3.5 31.7% 32.3% 3.10 -1.7%

BTTS 59.1% 60.6% 1.65 -2.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -6.2%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.1%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–0 5.9%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Damak1.3

Al Khaleej1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DAMAK · PPG 1.00

AL KHALEEJ · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Damak (H) 32.2%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -14.7%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +1.2%

Al Khaleej (A) 39.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -3.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Damak face Al Khaleej in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Damak a 32% chance, the draw 28% and Al Khaleej 39%, so Al Khaleej are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Damak and 1.5 for Al Khaleej (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Damak are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.93 for Al Khaleej. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Damak vs Al Khaleej Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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