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Drogheda Utd vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 12 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:45

Drogheda Utd

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

St. Patricks

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.3% — a clear edge.

+22.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-114.8%0-214.0%0-38.8%0-4+6.4%1 1-05.2%1-19.7%1-29.2%1-35.8%1-4+4.2%2 2-01.7%2-13.2%2-23.0%2-31.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.4%3-10.7%3-20.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.2% 22.5% 4.45 -45.7%

Draw 21.1% 29.9% 3.35 -29.3%

Away win 66.8% 54.3% 1.84 +22.9%

Over 2.5 46.7% 44.4% 2.25 +5.1%

Over 3.5 25.2% 23.8% 4.20 +5.8%

BTTS 40.8% 50.0% 2.00 -18.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob40.8%

A 67% / xG 0.7-1.9 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.8%

#2 0–2 14.0%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 0–3 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drogheda Utd0.7

St. Patricks1.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 1.00

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 1.40

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Drogheda Utd (H) 12.2%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV -45.7%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -29.3%

St. Patricks (A) 66.8%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV +22.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Drogheda Utd face St. Patricks in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drogheda Utd a 12% chance, the draw 21% and St. Patricks 67%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Drogheda Utd and 1.9 for St. Patricks (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drogheda Utd are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.40 for St. Patricks. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.9%. This match finished 1-3.

Drogheda Utd vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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