Today / Norway - Eliteserien / Brann vs Fredrikstad

Brann vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Regular Season - 7 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:00

Brann

PPG 0.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fredrikstad

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-13.8%0-22.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.4%1-18.5%1-25.6%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.1%2-19.4%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.3%3-17.0%3-24.6%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-16.5%4+-24.3%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 64.5% 1.55 -12.3%

Draw 22.6% 23.8% 4.20 -5.1%

Away win 20.8% 18.5% 5.40 +12.3%

Over 2.5 68.7% 62.5% 1.60 +9.9%

Over 3.5 47.3% 40.8% 2.45 +15.9%

BTTS 66.6% 61.7% 1.62 +7.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -16.0%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob66.6%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 3–1✓ 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brann2.2

Fredrikstad1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BRANN · PPG 0.00

FREDRIKSTAD · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Brann (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -12.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.1%

Fredrikstad (A) 20.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brann face Fredrikstad in Norway - Eliteserien on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brann a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Fredrikstad 21%, so Brann are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Brann and 1.3 for Fredrikstad (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brann are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Fredrikstad. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Brann vs Fredrikstad Prediction— Norway - Eliteserien

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - Eliteserien Predictions