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Como vs Napoli Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 35 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 16:00

Como

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Napoli

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.8%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.9%1-112.6%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.0%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.3%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 45.0% 2.22 -3.0%

Draw 30.3% 31.3% 3.20 -3.0%

Away win 26.0% 30.8% 3.25 -15.5%

Over 2.5 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

Over 3.5 24.0% 26.0% 3.85 -7.6%

BTTS 51.6% 54.6% 1.83 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0✓ 8.3%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Como1.4

Napoli1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

COMO · PPG 1.88

NAPOLI · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.88), Away GOOD (1.71)

Win probability 1X2

Como (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV -3.0%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.0%

Napoli (A) 26.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Como face Napoli in Italy - Serie A on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Como a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Napoli 26%, so Como are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Como and 1.1 for Napoli (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Como are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.71 for Napoli. This match finished 0-0.

Como vs Napoli Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Italy - Serie A Predictions