Inter Milan vs Cagliari Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Italy - Serie A Regular Season - 33 Stadio Giuseppe Meazza· Milan Friday, April 17, 2026 18:45

Inter Milan PPG 2.38

3-0 HIT CS2

Cagliari PPG 0.88

Over3.5· +12.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Milan face Cagliari in Italy - Serie A on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Milan a 78% chance, the draw 14% and Cagliari 8%, so Inter Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Inter Milan and 0.8 for Cagliari (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Milan are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.88 for Cagliari. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 78.3%

Odds: 1.23 EV: -3.7%

Draw 13.6%

Odds: 6.00 EV: -18.4%

Away 8.1%

Odds: 11.00 EV: -10.9%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 68.5% Odds: 1.57 +7.5%

Over 3.5 47.0% Odds: 2.40 +12.8%

BTTS 50.9% Odds: 2.15 +9.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 3-0 ✔

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Inter Milan

2.75

Cagliari

0.79

Model SuggestionHome -3.7% EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (-3.7%), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5/Under 55%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -26.7%

Bet Hit 40% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus