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Inter Milan vs Cagliari Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 33 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 18:45

Inter Milan

PPG 2.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDD

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Cagliari

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

Home 80% chance

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 81.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.3%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.0%1-16.3%1-22.5%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.0%2-18.7%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-17.9%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-013.5%4+-110.6%4+-24.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 78.3% 81.3% 1.23 -3.7%

Draw 13.6% 16.7% 6.00 -18.4%

Away win 8.1% 9.1% 11.00 -10.9%

Over 2.5 68.5% 63.7% 1.57 +7.5%

Over 3.5 47.0% 41.7% 2.40 +12.8%

BTTS 50.9% 46.5% 2.15 +9.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.9%

H 78% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 3–0✓ 10.1%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Milan2.7

Cagliari0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.5% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MILAN · PPG 2.38

CAGLIARI · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

80%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.38), Away POOR (0.88) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Inter Milan (H) 78.3%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -3.7%

Draw 13.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -18.4%

Cagliari (A) 8.1%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Milan face Cagliari in Italy - Serie A on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Milan a 78% chance, the draw 14% and Cagliari 8%, so Inter Milan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Inter Milan and 0.8 for Cagliari (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Milan are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 0.88 for Cagliari. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Inter Milan vs Cagliari Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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