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Al Fateh vs Neom SC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 31 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:50

Al Fateh

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Neom SC

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-18.6%0-26.1%0-32.9%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.4%1-111.9%1-28.4%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.8%2-18.3%2-25.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.7%3-13.8%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 35.1% 2.85 -0.5%

Draw 28.9% 28.2% 3.55 +2.6%

Away win 36.3% 43.5% 2.30 -16.5%

Over 2.5 53.0% 60.6% 1.65 -12.6%

Over 3.5 30.8% 37.7% 2.65 -18.4%

BTTS 58.5% 65.4% 1.53 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.5%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.4 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 6.1%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Fateh1.4

Neom SC1.4

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL FATEH · PPG 1.40

NEOM SC · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Al Fateh (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -0.5%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +2.6%

Neom SC (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Fateh face Neom SC in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Fateh a 35% chance, the draw 29% and Neom SC 36%, so Neom SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al Fateh and 1.4 for Neom SC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Fateh are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.47 for Neom SC. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Al Fateh vs Neom SC Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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