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Vevey Sports vs Luzern B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:30

Vevey Sports

PPG 0.43 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Luzern B

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.1%0-24.4%0-34.2%0-4+6.2%1 1-01.8%1-15.1%1-27.4%1-37.0%1-4+10.2%2 2-01.5%2-14.3%2-26.1%2-35.9%2-4+8.5%3 3-00.8%3-12.4%3-23.4%3-33.2%3-4+4.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.4%4+-22.0%4+-32.0%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.7% 17.4% 5.75 +13.3%

Draw 18.3% 19.0% 5.25 -3.9%

Away win 62.0% 73.5% 1.36 -15.7%

Over 2.5 83.0% — — —

Over 3.5 66.4% 65.4% 1.53 +1.6%

BTTS 77.2% 75.2% 1.33 +2.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob77.2%

A 62% / xG 1.7-2.9 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 77%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.4%

#2 1–3 7.0%

#3 2–2 6.1%

#4 1–1 5.1%

#5 2–3✓ 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vevey Sports1.7

Luzern B2.9

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.0% · O3.5 PROB 66.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VEVEY SPORTS · PPG 0.43

LUZERN B · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.43), Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Vevey Sports (H) 19.7%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +13.3%

Draw 18.3%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -3.9%

Luzern B (A) 62.0%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vevey Sports face Luzern B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vevey Sports a 20% chance, the draw 18% and Luzern B 62%, so Luzern B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Vevey Sports and 2.9 for Luzern B (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 77% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vevey Sports are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 0.64 for Luzern B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Vevey Sports vs Luzern B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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