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Kriens vs Bulle Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:30

Kriens

PPG 2.79 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bulle

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 84.5% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.3%0-20.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.0%1-14.3%1-23.0%1-31.4%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.0%2-17.0%2-24.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.4%3-17.6%3-25.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-114.2%4+-210.0%4+-34.7%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.8% 69.4% 1.44 +4.8%

Draw 14.9% 21.1% 4.75 -29.2%

Away win 12.3% 18.5% 5.40 -33.6%

Over 2.5 84.5% 76.9% 1.30 +9.8%

Over 3.5 68.7% 56.5% 1.77 +21.6%

BTTS 73.4% 71.4% 1.40 +2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob73.4%

H 73% / xG 3.3-1.4 / O2.5 84% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.6%

#2 2–1 7.0%

#3 4–1 6.2%

#4 3–0 5.4%

#5 3–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kriens3.3

Bulle1.4

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 84.5% · O3.5 PROB 68.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KRIENS · PPG 2.79

BULLE · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.79), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kriens (H) 72.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +4.8%

Draw 14.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -29.2%

Bulle (A) 12.3%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -33.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kriens face Bulle in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kriens a 73% chance, the draw 15% and Bulle 12%, so Kriens are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Kriens and 1.4 for Bulle (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kriens are averaging 2.79 points per game versus 1.00 for Bulle. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Kriens vs Bulle Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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