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Biel-Bienne vs Lugano B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:30

Biel-Bienne

PPG 2.29 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lugano B

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.1% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.9%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.3%1-15.6%1-23.6%1-31.5%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.4%2-18.2%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.2%3-18.0%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-09.3%4+-112.0%4+-27.7%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.1% 69.4% 1.44 +0.9%

Draw 16.8% 22.2% 4.50 -24.4%

Away win 13.1% 18.5% 5.40 -29.3%

Over 2.5 79.1% 72.5% 1.38 +9.2%

Over 3.5 60.7% 51.3% 1.95 +18.4%

BTTS 69.3% 67.6% 1.48 +2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob69.3%

H 70% / xG 2.9-1.3 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 1–1✓ 5.6%

#4 2–0 6.4%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Biel-Bienne2.9

Lugano B1.3

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.1% · O3.5 PROB 60.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BIEL-BIENNE · PPG 2.29

LUGANO B · PPG 0.93

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.29), Away POOR (0.93) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Biel-Bienne (H) 70.1%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV +0.9%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -24.4%

Lugano B (A) 13.1%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Biel-Bienne face Lugano B in Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Biel-Bienne a 70% chance, the draw 17% and Lugano B 13%, so Biel-Bienne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Biel-Bienne and 1.3 for Lugano B (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Biel-Bienne are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 0.93 for Lugano B. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Biel-Bienne vs Lugano B Prediction— Switzerland - 1. Liga Promotion

Match Preview & Prediction

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