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NK Olimpija vs Primorje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Regular Season - 33 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:30

NK Olimpija

PPG 1.60 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Primorje

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.6% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.1%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.1%1-110.1%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-16.5%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.1%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.6% 72.5% 1.38 -19.1%

Draw 24.4% 23.1% 4.33 +5.7%

Away win 17.0% 13.3% 7.50 +27.5%

Over 2.5 57.0% 61.7% 1.62 -7.7%

Over 3.5 34.6% 39.2% 2.55 -11.8%

BTTS 55.8% 55.6% 1.80 +0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 30.6%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.8%

H 59% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 2–1 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NK Olimpija2.0

Primorje1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.0% · O3.5 PROB 34.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NK OLIMPIJA · PPG 1.60

PRIMORJE · PPG 0.13

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=58.6%

Win probability 1X2

NK Olimpija (H) 58.6%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -19.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +5.7%

Primorje (A) 17.0%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

NK Olimpija face Primorje in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NK Olimpija a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Primorje 17%, so NK Olimpija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for NK Olimpija and 1.0 for Primorje (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NK Olimpija are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.13 for Primorje. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.5%. This match finished 3-0.

NK Olimpija vs Primorje Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions