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Orijent vs C. Zmijavci Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:00

Orijent

PPG 1.23 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

C. Zmijavci

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-18.5%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.4%1-112.4%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-19.1%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.5%3-14.5%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 51.3% 1.95 -10.1%

Draw 30.0% 35.7% 2.80 -16.0%

Away win 23.9% 27.0% 3.70 -11.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% — — —

Over 3.5 23.6% — — —

BTTS 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.5%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.5%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orijent1.5

C. Zmijavci1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 23.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ORIJENT · PPG 1.23

C. ZMIJAVCI · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.23) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Orijent (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -10.1%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -16.0%

C. Zmijavci (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -11.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orijent face C. Zmijavci in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orijent a 46% chance, the draw 30% and C. Zmijavci 24%, so Orijent are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Orijent and 1.0 for C. Zmijavci (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orijent are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 0.86 for C. Zmijavci. This match finished 0-1.

Orijent vs C. Zmijavci Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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