Today / Croatia - First NL / Jarun vs Hrvace

Jarun vs Hrvace Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:00

Jarun

PPG 1.69 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Hrvace

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.1%0-24.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.6%1-112.7%1-26.4%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-18.9%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 40.0% 2.50 +9.8%

Draw 30.8% 34.7% 2.88 -11.3%

Away win 25.3% 38.2% 2.62 -33.7%

Over 2.5 43.2% — — —

Over 3.5 22.3% — — —

BTTS 49.8% 54.1% 1.85 -7.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.8%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jarun1.4

Hrvace1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

JARUN · PPG 1.69

HRVACE · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.69) vs P(Home)=43.9%

Win probability 1X2

Jarun (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +9.8%

Draw 30.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -11.3%

Hrvace (A) 25.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -33.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jarun face Hrvace in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jarun a 44% chance, the draw 31% and Hrvace 25%, so Jarun are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Jarun and 1.0 for Hrvace (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jarun are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.64 for Hrvace. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Jarun vs Hrvace Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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